You've gotta go read this blog post by Meghan McCarthy over at the Blue Rose Girls. You know, the author/ illustrator of Seabiscuit Wonder Horse, Aliens are Coming!, Astronaut Handbook, etc., etc., etc.
Once you read her message, do read all the wonderful comments.
A huge discussion is happening there about talent. You know -- How to succeed in this crazy writing books business.
Is it Luck?
Or shear persistence and learning the craft?
(and how much of these do you need to have?)